Forecasting the probability of the detection of a compact binary merger in a science run based on previous detections

Document #:

LIGO-P2400022-v8

Document type:

P - Publications

Abstract:

With no binary neutron star (BNS) merger detected during the first half of the fourth observing run (O4) of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) network, despite a roughly doubled time-volume surveyed with respect to the end of O3, a pressing question is how likely the detection of at least one BNS merger is in the remainder second half of the run, due to start in a few months. I present here a simple and general method to address such a question, which constitutes the basis for the predictions to be presented in the LVK Public Alerts User Guide.

Files in Document:

• main text (aanda.pdf, 136.5 kB)

Topics:

• Compact Binaries

Authors:

• Om Salafia

Keywords:

BNS rates O4

Notes and Changes:

Updated predictions after O4b extension