LIGO Document P2400022-v7

Forecasting the probability of the detection of a compact binary merger in a science run based on previous detections

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P - Publications
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With no binary neutron star (BNS) merger detected during the first half of the fourth observing run (O4) of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) network, despite a roughly doubled time-volume surveyed with respect to the end of O3, a pressing question is how likely the detection of at least one BNS merger is in the remainder second half of the run, due to start in a few months. I present here a simple and general method to address such a question, which constitutes the basis for the predictions to be presented in the LVK Public Alerts User Guide.
Files in Document:
BNS rates O4
Notes and Changes:
Updated to reflect the Public Alerts User Guide release

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